NUWRF-EPIC TRACER IOP forecasting and validation results using polarimetric radar simulator and cell tracking analyses

Description

The TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) field measurement campaign is conducted over the Houston metropolitan area with a four-month intensive operational period (IOP) from June 1 to September 30, 2022. During the period, we conduct 1km-mesh 48-hours daily operational forecasting simulations using NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model with enhanced capability of Electrification, Polarimetric radar Instrumental simulator, and Cloud condensation nuclei (NU-WRF EPIC), which is composed of multi-mode CCN initialization and activation, NSSL 2-moment lightning-microphysics scheme, and inline POLArimetric Radar Retrieval and Instrument Simulator (POLARRIS). This unique forecasting framework is designed to deliver convection, lightning, and radar forecasting outcomes at finest operational resolution to TRACER daily weather briefing to support various operational activities. This framework also includes an automated validation and skill score generations in comparison with polarimetric radar composites from the NEXRAD KHGX observations, such as horizontal radar composite fractions, vertical radar profiles, and time-integrated contoured frequency of altitude diagrams (CFADs). In addition, cell-tracking analysis using the Tracking and Object-Based Analysis of Clouds (TOBAC) are applied to validate convection lifecycles and associated polarimetric radar signals. This poster summarizes the four-month-long IOP forecasting and these validation results. Along the observation operation, we will choose several golden cases to conduct finer-resolution hindcast simulations and analysis to investigate the relationship between aerosols, convection, microphysics, and lightning activities for isolated convective cells.