Accurate Solar Forecasting -- A Key Enabler in Meeting the Goals of the SunShot Initiative

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Accurate Solar Forecasting -- A Key Enabler in Meeting the Goals of the SunShot Initiative Subhashree Mishra(1,2) Venkat Banunarayan(1) and Ranga Pitchumani(1) 1. SunShot Initiative, Solar Energy Technologies Office, Department of Energy, Washington, DC 2. AAAS S&T Policy Fellow The SunShot Initiative was launched in 2011 by former U.S. Energy Secretary, Dr. Steven Chu to reduce the total cost of solar energy systems by about 75% to make them cost competitive with other forms of energy (without subsidies) by 2020. This translates to a total cost of installed solar energy at $1/Watt or $0.06/kWh. In the past four years, the SunShot Initiative has catalyzed revolutionary advancements in solar technologies, stimulating significant growth and accelerating deployment of solar energy systems. However, as solar deployment increases, integrating solar energy into the utility grid poses difficult challenges due to the intermittent nature of solar energy and the impact of clouds and aerosols on surface irradiance. While the Atmospheric Science community has been deeply involved in improving understanding of atmospheric radiation transfer from a weather and climate perspective, the challenges posed from a solar forecasting perspective are of a different dimension. Accurate forecasting of solar resource and its variability at high temporal and spatial resolution at least a day ahead is crucial to large scale integration of solar energy into the utility grid. Significant improvements in surface solar irradiance modeling and observations of both Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) are essential to accurately predict power outputs from photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) systems. DOE is currently funding research to improve solar forecasting through awards made to NCAR, IBM and NOAA and through research conducted at the National Renewable Energy Lab. Details about these ongoing efforts and the challenges and needs for solar forecasting improvements in regards to the SunShot Initiative will be discussed during the poster session.