Predictability of Convective Precipitation

Todd Jones Colorado State University
David Randall Colorado State University

Category: Cloud Properties

Working Group: Cloud Life Cycle

Cumulus parameterizations predict the expected values of the convective precipitation rate, and the convective heating and drying rates, as functions of the large-scale sounding and the resolved-scale forcing. These predictions are statistical and have uncertainties that depend on the model’s grid spacing and also on the rate at which the resolved-scale weather situation is changing. We will present an analysis of the results of a large number of numerical experiments with a three-dimensional cloud-resolving model designed to investigate the dependence of the uncertainty of grid spacing and other parameters.

This poster will be displayed at ASR Science Team Meeting.

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